Bulgarians vote on Sunday in a presidential election as security concerns follow a series of drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea. President Iliana Iotova, who favours dialogue with Moscow and opposes military aid to Ukraine, is the frontrunner for a new term in the largely ceremonial post, polls show.
Iotova, 62, is expected to win between 41 and 47 percent of the vote, according to surveys. Her main challenger, Andrey Gyurov, a banker and former caretaker prime minister backed by the pro-Western opposition, is polling at 28-31 percent. Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the pro-Russian far-right Vazrazhdane party, is in third place on 10-13 percent.
Iotova took over this year as president of Bulgaria, a European Union and NATO member, when Rumen Radev stepped down to run in parliamentary elections and eventually became prime minister. If she wins a runoff set for November 1, she would become the first woman ever elected president in the country of 6.4 million people. A win would also boost Radev, who has called for dialogue with Moscow. A former journalist and member of the European Parliament, Iotova was elected vice-president alongside Radev in 2016 and 2021.
She opened her campaign by the Golden Church in Veliki Preslav, the former capital of the First Bulgarian Empire, appealing to patriotic sentiment. She has called for national unity and action against poverty in the EU's poorest member state, and has made peace in Ukraine a central theme, promising to be a "president of peace". Without questioning EU or NATO membership, she opposes military aid to Ukraine and advocates negotiations. At a rally in Varna she said, "We do not need a Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine, but a Coalition for Peace in Ukraine," arguing that military support would prolong Russia's invasion.
At a rally in Dimitrovgrad, retired teacher Irina Ilieva, 85, said the Ukraine war was her main concern and that whoever is elected will have to do everything possible so the problems are resolved peacefully.
Four vessels were struck off Bulgaria's coast this month, leaving 21 people missing, in suspected spillover from the Russia-Ukraine war. Radev said the attacks appeared to serve Russian interests and summoned the Russian ambassador, while his government insists there is so far no evidence directly linking Moscow to them. An American P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance plane has started to patrol the Black Sea after Sofia called for help.
Historically close to Russia, Bulgaria remains deeply divided over its relationship with Moscow. Twenty-seven pairs of candidates for president and vice-president are competing in the first round, nearly half of them openly pro-Kremlin. Political scientist Parvan Simeonov, founder of polling institute Myara, said the vote pits a vision that is conservative, popular and oriented toward the East against one that is Western, elitist and liberal.
Gyurov, 50, has sharply criticised Radev's foreign policy and strongly supports Bulgaria's Euro-Atlantic ties. At his final campaign rally in Plovdiv on Wednesday he said he wanted Bulgaria to be "a reliable ally within NATO, defending its interests through solid preparedness, strong diplomacy and clear positions". Gallery owner and art historian Toros Torosian, 57, said the election would be decisive for Bulgaria and that the country is at a critical juncture because the balance of power is leaning toward pro-Russian currents.
Vessela Tcherneva, deputy director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told AFP that the election matters because the president symbolises the unity of the nation and the strategic direction it is heading towards.